Pull-rate estimates
Quick answer
Pull rates describe what past samples of packs contained — one top-rarity hit per N packs on average. They are observed estimates with sample sizes and confidence levels, not official odds, and they never guarantee what your pack contains.
Want the math? Read how pull rates work or try the pack odds calculator.
Help build real pull rates
Tracked what you opened? Submit your counts — reviewed datasets replace placeholders here, with credit. Submit pull data →
Estimates, not guarantees
Pull statistics are estimates based on available data and may vary. Opening packs is random. No pack, box, or sealed product guarantees a specific card unless the product explicitly states it.
Regular booster packs from different sealed products should not be presented as having special odds unless there is official evidence. A booster pack is random.
Always check official product details and set lists before buying.
Pokémon TCG
Set: Destined Rivals
Destined Rivals booster pack — demo observed sample
- Dataset type
- Internal manual sample
- Sample size
- 720 packs (20 boxes)
- Source
- TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
- Last reviewed
:
| Rarity / target | Hits | Packs opened | Estimated rate | Odds (estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare (ex) | 178 | 720 | 24.72% | ≈ 1 in 4 packs |
| Illustration Rare | 103 | 720 | 14.31% | ≈ 1 in 7 packs |
| Special Illustration Rare | 12 | 720 | 1.67% | ≈ 1 in 60 packs |
| Hyper Rare (Gold) | 8 | 720 | 1.11% | ≈ 1 in 90 packs |
Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.
Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.
Set: Prismatic Evolutions
Prismatic Evolutions booster pack — demo observed sample
- Dataset type
- Internal manual sample
- Sample size
- 900 packs
- Source
- TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
- Last reviewed
:
| Rarity / target | Hits | Packs opened | Estimated rate | Odds (estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare (ex) | 225 | 900 | 25.00% | ≈ 1 in 4 packs |
| Illustration Rare | 128 | 900 | 14.22% | ≈ 1 in 7 packs |
| Special Illustration Rare | 13 | 900 | 1.44% | ≈ 1 in 69 packs |
| Hyper Rare (Gold) | 9 | 900 | 1.00% | ≈ 1 in 100 packs |
Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.
Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.
Set: Scarlet & Violet—151
Pokémon 151 booster pack — demo observed sample
- Dataset type
- Internal manual sample
- Sample size
- 540 packs
- Source
- TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
- Last reviewed
:
| Rarity / target | Hits | Packs opened | Estimated rate | Odds (estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare (ex) | 132 | 540 | 24.44% | ≈ 1 in 4 packs |
| Illustration Rare | 84 | 540 | 15.56% | ≈ 1 in 6 packs |
| Special Illustration Rare | 9 | 540 | 1.67% | ≈ 1 in 60 packs |
Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.
Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.
Set: Evolving Skies
Evolving Skies booster pack — demo observed sample
- Dataset type
- Internal manual sample
- Sample size
- 1,800 packs (50 boxes)
- Source
- TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
- Last reviewed
:
| Rarity / target | Hits | Packs opened | Estimated rate | Odds (estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare (V / VMAX / full art) | 320 | 1,800 | 17.78% | ≈ 1 in 6 packs |
| Alternate-art Ultra Rare (any) | 40 | 1,800 | 2.22% | ≈ 1 in 45 packs |
| Umbreon VMAX (Alternate Art) | 2 | 1,800 | 0.11% | ≈ 1 in 900 packs |
| Hyper Rare (Gold / Rainbow) | 20 | 1,800 | 1.11% | ≈ 1 in 90 packs |
Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.
Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.
Set: Surging Sparks
Surging Sparks booster box — demo observed sample
- Dataset type
- Internal manual sample
- Sample size
- 1,080 packs (30 boxes)
- Source
- TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
- Last reviewed
:
| Rarity / target | Hits | Packs opened | Estimated rate | Odds (estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare (ex) | 270 | 1,080 | 25.00% | ≈ 1 in 4 packs |
| Illustration Rare | 154 | 1,080 | 14.26% | ≈ 1 in 7 packs |
| Special Illustration Rare | 16 | 1,080 | 1.48% | ≈ 1 in 68 packs |
| Hyper Rare (Gold) | 11 | 1,080 | 1.02% | ≈ 1 in 98 packs |
Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.
Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.
One Piece Card Game
Awakening of the New Era booster box — demo observed sample
- Dataset type
- Internal manual sample
- Sample size
- 960 packs (40 boxes)
- Source
- TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
- Last reviewed
:
| Rarity / target | Hits | Packs opened | Estimated rate | Odds (estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Rare | 220 | 960 | 22.92% | ≈ 1 in 4 packs |
| Secret Rare | 55 | 960 | 5.73% | ≈ 1 in 17 packs |
| Manga Rare | 2 | 960 | 0.21% | ≈ 1 in 480 packs |
Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.
Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.
Set: Two Legends
Two Legends booster box — demo observed sample
- Dataset type
- Internal manual sample
- Sample size
- 1,200 packs (50 boxes)
- Source
- TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
- Last reviewed
:
| Rarity / target | Hits | Packs opened | Estimated rate | Odds (estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Rare | 285 | 1,200 | 23.75% | ≈ 1 in 4 packs |
| Secret Rare | 66 | 1,200 | 5.50% | ≈ 1 in 18 packs |
| Manga Rare | 3 | 1,200 | 0.25% | ≈ 1 in 400 packs |
Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.
Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.
Magic: The Gathering
Set: Magic: The Gathering — FINAL FANTASY
Final Fantasy Collector Booster — demo observed sample
- Dataset type
- Internal manual sample
- Sample size
- 360 packs (30 boxes)
- Source
- TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
- Last reviewed
:
| Rarity / target | Hits | Packs opened | Estimated rate | Odds (estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic Rare (at least one) | 190 | 360 | 52.78% | ≈ 1 in 2 packs |
| Borderless / Showcase (any) | 300 | 360 | 83.33% | ≈ 1 in 1.2 packs |
| Premium borderless chase (Sephiroth / Cloud tier) | 9 | 360 | 2.50% | ≈ 1 in 40 packs |
Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.
Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.
Yu-Gi-Oh!
Set: Supreme Darkness
Supreme Darkness booster box — demo observed sample
- Dataset type
- Internal manual sample
- Sample size
- 1,080 packs (45 boxes)
- Source
- TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
- Last reviewed
:
| Rarity / target | Hits | Packs opened | Estimated rate | Odds (estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Rare | 270 | 1,080 | 25.00% | ≈ 1 in 4 packs |
| Ultra Rare | 108 | 1,080 | 10.00% | ≈ 1 in 10 packs |
| Secret Rare | 200 | 1,080 | 18.52% | ≈ 1 in 5 packs |
| Quarter Century Secret Rare | 45 | 1,080 | 4.17% | ≈ 1 in 24 packs |
Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.
Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.
Disney Lorcana
Set: The First Chapter
The First Chapter booster pack — demo observed sample
- Dataset type
- Internal manual sample
- Sample size
- 960 packs (40 boxes)
- Source
- TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
- Last reviewed
:
| Rarity / target | Hits | Packs opened | Estimated rate | Odds (estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Rare | 160 | 960 | 16.67% | ≈ 1 in 6 packs |
| Legendary | 80 | 960 | 8.33% | ≈ 1 in 12 packs |
| Enchanted | 11 | 960 | 1.15% | ≈ 1 in 87 packs |
Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.
Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.
Frequently asked questions
What is a pull rate?
A pull rate is the observed frequency of a rarity or card appearing in packs — for example, one Special Illustration Rare per 40 packs opened in a sample. It describes past openings, not a promise about your next pack.
Why do pull rates differ between sources?
Sample sizes, print waves, regions and counting methods differ. Small samples swing a lot. That is why every dataset on TCG Pax lists its sample size, method and a confidence level, and why we present ranges instead of exact promises.
Do different sealed products have different odds for the same pack?
For Pokémon, regular booster packs from different sealed products should not be presented as having special odds unless there is official evidence. A booster pack is random. Products differ in pack count, accessories and price — that is what we compare.
Collect responsibly
Open packs for fun and collecting. If you need a specific card, compare the cost of buying the single.
Stats help set expectations. They do not change your odds or guarantee results.