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Pull-rate estimates

Quick answer

Pull rates describe what past samples of packs contained — one top-rarity hit per N packs on average. They are observed estimates with sample sizes and confidence levels, not official odds, and they never guarantee what your pack contains.

Want the math? Read how pull rates work or try the pack odds calculator.

Help build real pull rates

Tracked what you opened? Submit your counts — reviewed datasets replace placeholders here, with credit. Submit pull data →

Estimates, not guarantees

Pull statistics are estimates based on available data and may vary. Opening packs is random. No pack, box, or sealed product guarantees a specific card unless the product explicitly states it.

Regular booster packs from different sealed products should not be presented as having special odds unless there is official evidence. A booster pack is random.

Always check official product details and set lists before buying.

Pokémon TCG

Set: Destined Rivals

Destined Rivals booster pack — demo observed sample

Demo dataLow confidence
Dataset type
Internal manual sample
Sample size
720 packs (20 boxes)
Source
TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
Last reviewed

:

Observed pull-rate estimates from Destined Rivals booster pack — demo observed sample
Rarity / targetHitsPacks openedEstimated rateOdds (estimate)
Double Rare (ex)17872024.72%≈ 1 in 4 packs
Illustration Rare10372014.31%≈ 1 in 7 packs
Special Illustration Rare127201.67%≈ 1 in 60 packs
Hyper Rare (Gold)87201.11%≈ 1 in 90 packs

Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.

Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.

Set: Prismatic Evolutions

Prismatic Evolutions booster pack — demo observed sample

Demo dataLow confidence
Dataset type
Internal manual sample
Sample size
900 packs
Source
TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
Last reviewed

:

Observed pull-rate estimates from Prismatic Evolutions booster pack — demo observed sample
Rarity / targetHitsPacks openedEstimated rateOdds (estimate)
Double Rare (ex)22590025.00%≈ 1 in 4 packs
Illustration Rare12890014.22%≈ 1 in 7 packs
Special Illustration Rare139001.44%≈ 1 in 69 packs
Hyper Rare (Gold)99001.00%≈ 1 in 100 packs

Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.

Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.

Set: Scarlet & Violet—151

Pokémon 151 booster pack — demo observed sample

Demo dataLow confidence
Dataset type
Internal manual sample
Sample size
540 packs
Source
TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
Last reviewed

:

Observed pull-rate estimates from Pokémon 151 booster pack — demo observed sample
Rarity / targetHitsPacks openedEstimated rateOdds (estimate)
Double Rare (ex)13254024.44%≈ 1 in 4 packs
Illustration Rare8454015.56%≈ 1 in 6 packs
Special Illustration Rare95401.67%≈ 1 in 60 packs

Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.

Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.

Set: Evolving Skies

Evolving Skies booster pack — demo observed sample

Demo dataMedium confidence
Dataset type
Internal manual sample
Sample size
1,800 packs (50 boxes)
Source
TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
Last reviewed

:

Observed pull-rate estimates from Evolving Skies booster pack — demo observed sample
Rarity / targetHitsPacks openedEstimated rateOdds (estimate)
Ultra Rare (V / VMAX / full art)3201,80017.78%≈ 1 in 6 packs
Alternate-art Ultra Rare (any)401,8002.22%≈ 1 in 45 packs
Umbreon VMAX (Alternate Art)21,8000.11%≈ 1 in 900 packs
Hyper Rare (Gold / Rainbow)201,8001.11%≈ 1 in 90 packs

Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.

Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.

Set: Surging Sparks

Surging Sparks booster box — demo observed sample

Demo dataMedium confidence
Dataset type
Internal manual sample
Sample size
1,080 packs (30 boxes)
Source
TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
Last reviewed

:

Observed pull-rate estimates from Surging Sparks booster box — demo observed sample
Rarity / targetHitsPacks openedEstimated rateOdds (estimate)
Double Rare (ex)2701,08025.00%≈ 1 in 4 packs
Illustration Rare1541,08014.26%≈ 1 in 7 packs
Special Illustration Rare161,0801.48%≈ 1 in 68 packs
Hyper Rare (Gold)111,0801.02%≈ 1 in 98 packs

Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.

Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.

One Piece Card Game

Set: Awakening of the New Era

Awakening of the New Era booster box — demo observed sample

Demo dataLow confidence
Dataset type
Internal manual sample
Sample size
960 packs (40 boxes)
Source
TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
Last reviewed

:

Observed pull-rate estimates from Awakening of the New Era booster box — demo observed sample
Rarity / targetHitsPacks openedEstimated rateOdds (estimate)
Super Rare22096022.92%≈ 1 in 4 packs
Secret Rare559605.73%≈ 1 in 17 packs
Manga Rare29600.21%≈ 1 in 480 packs

Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.

Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.

Set: Two Legends

Two Legends booster box — demo observed sample

Demo dataLow confidence
Dataset type
Internal manual sample
Sample size
1,200 packs (50 boxes)
Source
TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
Last reviewed

:

Observed pull-rate estimates from Two Legends booster box — demo observed sample
Rarity / targetHitsPacks openedEstimated rateOdds (estimate)
Super Rare2851,20023.75%≈ 1 in 4 packs
Secret Rare661,2005.50%≈ 1 in 18 packs
Manga Rare31,2000.25%≈ 1 in 400 packs

Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.

Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.

Magic: The Gathering

Set: Magic: The Gathering — FINAL FANTASY

Final Fantasy Collector Booster — demo observed sample

Demo dataLow confidence
Dataset type
Internal manual sample
Sample size
360 packs (30 boxes)
Source
TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
Last reviewed

:

Observed pull-rate estimates from Final Fantasy Collector Booster — demo observed sample
Rarity / targetHitsPacks openedEstimated rateOdds (estimate)
Mythic Rare (at least one)19036052.78%≈ 1 in 2 packs
Borderless / Showcase (any)30036083.33%≈ 1 in 1.2 packs
Premium borderless chase (Sephiroth / Cloud tier)93602.50%≈ 1 in 40 packs

Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.

Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.

Yu-Gi-Oh!

Set: Supreme Darkness

Supreme Darkness booster box — demo observed sample

Demo dataMedium confidence
Dataset type
Internal manual sample
Sample size
1,080 packs (45 boxes)
Source
TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
Last reviewed

:

Observed pull-rate estimates from Supreme Darkness booster box — demo observed sample
Rarity / targetHitsPacks openedEstimated rateOdds (estimate)
Super Rare2701,08025.00%≈ 1 in 4 packs
Ultra Rare1081,08010.00%≈ 1 in 10 packs
Secret Rare2001,08018.52%≈ 1 in 5 packs
Quarter Century Secret Rare451,0804.17%≈ 1 in 24 packs

Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.

Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.

Disney Lorcana

Set: The First Chapter

The First Chapter booster pack — demo observed sample

Demo dataLow confidence
Dataset type
Internal manual sample
Sample size
960 packs (40 boxes)
Source
TCG Pax demo dataset (placeholder)
Last reviewed

:

Observed pull-rate estimates from The First Chapter booster pack — demo observed sample
Rarity / targetHitsPacks openedEstimated rateOdds (estimate)
Super Rare16096016.67%≈ 1 in 6 packs
Legendary809608.33%≈ 1 in 12 packs
Enchanted119601.15%≈ 1 in 87 packs

Observed estimate — not official odds. These figures are illustrative placeholders, not a measured sample — they show how the stats are presented while we build verified, community-sourced datasets to replace them. Treat them as examples only.

Stats are estimates, not promises. Pack openings are random.

Frequently asked questions

What is a pull rate?

A pull rate is the observed frequency of a rarity or card appearing in packs — for example, one Special Illustration Rare per 40 packs opened in a sample. It describes past openings, not a promise about your next pack.

Why do pull rates differ between sources?

Sample sizes, print waves, regions and counting methods differ. Small samples swing a lot. That is why every dataset on TCG Pax lists its sample size, method and a confidence level, and why we present ranges instead of exact promises.

Do different sealed products have different odds for the same pack?

For Pokémon, regular booster packs from different sealed products should not be presented as having special odds unless there is official evidence. A booster pack is random. Products differ in pack count, accessories and price — that is what we compare.

Collect responsibly

Open packs for fun and collecting. If you need a specific card, compare the cost of buying the single.

Stats help set expectations. They do not change your odds or guarantee results.